Historical data shows cannabis sales typically spike the weekend before the Fourth of July and Friday, July 2nd is expected to retail nearly $91,000,0000 — up 60% from an average Friday.
Cannabis software and intelligence company Akerna (NASDAQ: KERN) released a new flash report this morning, predicting the 4th of July, 2021 will bring in over $206,000,000 in legal cannabis sales across the United States.
With Connecticut being the most recent state to legalize, 38 states now have legislation permitting an adult-consumption and/or medical cannabis program. Not everyone has dispensaries up and running yet, so this data doesn’t reflect sales in all 38 legal states.
2021 Fourth of July Sales Predictions
According to the flash report, historical data shows cannabis sales typically spike the weekend before the Fourth of July and Friday, July 2nd is expected to retail nearly $91,000,0000 — up 60% from an average Friday. The report predicts July 2nd to be the second highest sales day of the year, just after 4/20. Saturday, July 3rd, is forecasted to generate $72,000,000 in cannabis sales, with Sunday, July 4th, expecting to see $43,000,0000. Sundays are typically the lowest sales day of the week when you look at historical data, but dispensaries will still see more sales than normal because it’s a holiday.
“Year over year, we’ve seen a 23% increase in the number of products consumers and patients are purchasing for the 4th of July holiday weekend,” said James Ahrendt, Business Intelligence Architect at Akerna. “With the holiday falling on a Sunday this year, dispensaries should be evaluating staffing and preparing inventory ahead of the weekend to ensure they are ready to accommodate these increases in both traffic and sales.”
Some other Independence Day weekend (7/02-7/04) sales predictions:
- The average order total will be $8 more than normal: $109 vs. $101
- Each basket will carry an average of 3.6 products per transaction
- Flower will make up 49% of sales
- Cartridges/pens will make up 31% of sales
- Concentrates will account for 10% of sales
- Infused edibles will account for 9% of sales
- Other products will make up 1% of sales
- 61% of consumers will be male
- 39% of consumers will be female
- 29% of consumers will be under the age of 30
- 30-40 year olds will make up 31% of consumers
- 20% of consumers will be between the age of 40 and 50
- 50-60 year olds will account for 11% of consumers
- Consumers over the age of 60 will account for 9% of sales
Akerna regularly releases flash reports. Last year’s 4th of July report anticipated an 87% increase in sales over the 4th of July weekend, with Americans expected to spend more on cannabis than bbq meats. Historically, consumers spend more than $371 million on chicken during the two weeks leading up to July 4th, equalling about $37 million per day. Akerna predicted cannabis sales to reach over $260 million in just three days, generating about $86 million per day.
Data for Akerna’s flash reports are provided by MJ Platform, a regulatory compliance technology company in the cannabis space.