A Cantor Fitzgerald analyst says sales for the first year of recreational and medical cannabis will likely surpass the $2 billion mark.
By Nina Zdinjak
New York became the 15th state in the U.S. to legalize recreational cannabis Wednesday with Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s signature.
The bill enables adult New York residents to own up to 3 ounces of cannabis or 24 grams of cannabis concentrates and to legally buy recreational cannabis from licensed retailers.
Cannabis Analyst On New York’s Market Potential
In five to seven years, the New York recreational cannabis market could reach $7 billion in sales, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said in a Wednesday note, using the Colorado market as a benchmark.
“For modeling purposes, we assume NY rec starts 7/1/22, and project sales of $2.1Bn for the ﬁrst 12 months between rec and med.”
A company with 15% of the market share could yield $110 million in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) from New York alone by the time the sales reach $7 billion, said Zuanic.
MSO Lobby Stronger Than Assumed
The latest version of Bill S.854, the one that was signed by Cuomo, enables the vertically integrated licensed recreational operators to sell to third-party stores, Zuanic said, adding that the original version of the bill allowed the operators to sell only to three of their own stores.
Noting this “last-minute change,” Zuanic said the multi-state operator lobby is more powerful than assumed.
Once the list of medical conditions that qualify patients for medical cannabis and the list of allowed product formats are expended, the state medical cannabis program could “see more pronounced growth,” he said.
“Clearly the upside should be in the rec market.”